The Beast
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.84
8.84 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $7.95 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.31%
46 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 46 openings and 5.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $76.74 76.74 CSGOBIG_COIN | 38.6% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 14 | $15.21 15.21 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.4% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.24× |
| Nova | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $11.18 11.18 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.7% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.45× |
| M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $9.48 9.48 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.9% | 1 | 4.6 | 0.22× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 14.0% | $4.74 4.74 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.3% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.78× |
| M4A4 | Griffin (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 16.0% | $3.01 3.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.1% | 12 | 7.4 | 1.63× |
| AUG | Chameleon (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $1.84 1.84 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.6% | 7 | 9.2 | 0.76× |
| AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $1.76 1.76 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.4% | 9 | 9.2 | 0.98× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=377, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A4 | Griffin (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedDefault Name$8.848.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.013.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.34x
M4A4 | Griffin (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedImAzonic$8.848.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.013.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.34x
AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedImAzonic$8.848.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.761.76 CSGOBIG_COIN0.20x
Nova | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedDefault Name$8.848.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.1811.18 CSGOBIG_COIN1.26x
Nova | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedDefault Name$8.848.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.1811.18 CSGOBIG_COIN1.26x
M4A4 | Griffin (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedpeterschmitt7369$8.848.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.013.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.34x
AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedDefault Name$8.848.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.761.76 CSGOBIG_COIN0.20x
M4A4 | Griffin (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedpeterschmitt7369$8.848.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.013.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.34x
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifieddabros$8.848.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.744.74 CSGOBIG_COIN0.54x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.84 | 89.97% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 41.0%classified 23.0%restricted 36.0%best hit —