Lucky AF
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.00
3 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2.70 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.82%
22 openings, odds method
Variance
4.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 22 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=38, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sealed Graffiti | Shining Star (Wire Blue)graffiti · #B0C3D9$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.390.39 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x
Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.102.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.70x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.00 | 90.00% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 4.4%Industrial Grade 3.3%#4B69FF 18.7%High Grade 17.6%Uncommon 8.8%restricted 14.3%#B0C3D9 31.8%blue 1.1%best hit —