Neon Fusion
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.14
16.14 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $14.52 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
130.91%
7 openings, odds method
Variance
4.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 7 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $285 285 CSGOBIG_COIN | 19.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $119 119 CSGOBIG_COIN | 24.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $40.00 40 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 13 | $28.91 28.91 CSGOBIG_COIN | 15.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $14.00 14 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 11.0% | $10.78 10.78 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 18.0% | $5.78 5.78 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.59× |
| Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 22.0% | $3.93 3.93 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 30.0% | $1.42 1.42 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=381, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$16.1416.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.785.78 CSGOBIG_COIN0.36x
Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary$16.1416.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.933.93 CSGOBIG_COIN0.24x
MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertJust Gamba$16.1416.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.785.78 CSGOBIG_COIN0.36x
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red$16.1416.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.7810.78 CSGOBIG_COIN0.67x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $16.14 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 29.0%red 19.0%Legendary 22.0%pink 30.0%best hit —