Code Red
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.46
3.46 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $3.11 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.27%
5 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
38.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 5 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $122 122 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $36.01 36.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 34.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 500 | $35.87 35.87 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 286 | $10.61 10.61 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 34.4% | $3.34 3.34 CSGOBIG_COIN | 36.9% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.33× |
| USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 17.0% | $2.35 2.35 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| USP-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 45.0% | $0.70 0.7 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.1% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=382, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.46 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%classified 3.6%pink 34.4%restricted 62.0%best hit —