Echo

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$374.71

375 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $337.24 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

31.07%

7 openings, odds method

Variance

13.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 33

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

7 openings · below min

30 days

7 openings · below min

since tracking started

7 openings · below min

-0.5%360.3%721.0%

Small sample. 7 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	2.67%±717.7	—	odds
7d	7	31.07%±271.3	—	odds
30d	7	31.07%±271.3	—	odds
All	7	31.07%±271.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
EMS Katowice 2014 Challengersother · base	1 in 1,000	$24.8K 24,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$15K 15,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 333	$10K 10,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 200	$6,300 6,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.3%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 286	$5,000 5,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 154	$3,680 3,680 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.1%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| 3DMAX (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 111	$3,600 3,600 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.6%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$2,800 2,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 22	$760 760 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.1%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20	$650 650 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.6%	1	0.4	—
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 40	$600 600 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 33	$300 300 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.4	—
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$120 120 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	1	0.6	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	10.0%	$48.00 48 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.7	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	23.0%	$10.00 10 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	4	1.6	2.48×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	35.0%	$4.90 4.9 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	1	2.4	0.41×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=385, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$375375 CSGOBIG_COIN$650650 CSGOBIG_COIN1.73x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$375375 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x20h

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$375375 CSGOBIG_COIN$650650 CSGOBIG_COIN1.73x1d

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$375375 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x1d

MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$375375 CSGOBIG_COIN$120120 CSGOBIG_COIN0.32x1d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$375375 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.904.9 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x1d

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covertDefault Name$375375 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x1d

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$375375 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$375	90.00%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbase 0.1%extraordinary 0.2%legendary 0.7%covert 49.6%remarkable 1.9%epic 4.5%mil spec 8.0%restricted 35.0%best hit $650 (1.73x)