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Lucky Fortune

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$11.96
11.96 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $10.76 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
216.83%
605 openings, odds method
Variance
452.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
35 openings · below min
7 days
528 openings · below min
30 days
605 openings · below min
since tracking started
605 openings · below min
-0.5%352.3%705.0%

Small sample. 605 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h350.08%±704.3—odds
7d528182.52%±181.3—odds
30d605216.83%±169.4—odds
All605216.83%±169.4—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 608 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 100,000$35K 35,000 CSGOBIG_COIN3.3%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 100,000$27.1K 27,113 CSGOBIG_COIN2.5%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 40,000$19.1K 19,113 CSGOBIG_COIN4.4%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 40,000$15.1K 15,113 CSGOBIG_COIN3.5%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 28,571$13.6K 13,613 CSGOBIG_COIN4.4%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 28,571$10.4K 10,413 CSGOBIG_COIN3.4%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 28,571$9,513 9,513 CSGOBIG_COIN3.1%00.0—
★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 20,000$8,013 8,013 CSGOBIG_COIN3.7%00.0—
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 13,333$5,713 5,713 CSGOBIG_COIN4.0%00.0—
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$5,113 5,113 CSGOBIG_COIN4.8%10.1—
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband1 in 10,000$4,113 4,113 CSGOBIG_COIN3.8%00.1—
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 4,000$2,513 2,513 CSGOBIG_COIN5.8%10.2—
AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 4,000$2,113 2,113 CSGOBIG_COIN4.9%10.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic1 in 2,000$1,313 1,313 CSGOBIG_COIN6.1%00.3—
Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$1,313 1,313 CSGOBIG_COIN6.1%20.3—
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 1,000$913 913 CSGOBIG_COIN8.5%00.6—
★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,000$813 813 CSGOBIG_COIN7.6%10.6—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 1,000$713 713 CSGOBIG_COIN6.6%20.6—
★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,000$470 470 CSGOBIG_COIN4.4%10.6—
★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 1,000$361 361 CSGOBIG_COIN3.4%00.6—
★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic1 in 1,000$273 273 CSGOBIG_COIN2.5%10.6—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 31 in 1,000$213 213 CSGOBIG_COIN2.0%10.6—
★ Paracord Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd7001 in 1,000$123 123 CSGOBIG_COIN1.1%10.6—
Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown)graffiti · #B0C3D999.0%$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.1%596601.90.99×
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=388, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$5,1135,113 CSGOBIG_COIN427.5x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$2,5132,513 CSGOBIG_COIN210.1x
AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$2,1132,113 CSGOBIG_COIN176.7x
Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,3131,313 CSGOBIG_COIN109.8x
Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,3131,313 CSGOBIG_COIN109.8x
★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$813813 CSGOBIG_COIN67.98x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$713713 CSGOBIG_COIN59.62x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$713713 CSGOBIG_COIN59.62x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown)graffiti · #B0C3D9$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown)graffiti · #B0C3D9$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown)graffiti · #B0C3D9$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown)graffiti · #B0C3D9$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown)graffiti · #B0C3D9$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown)graffiti · #B0C3D9$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown)graffiti · #B0C3D9$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown)graffiti · #B0C3D9$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown)graffiti · #B0C3D9smschico =]===>$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown)graffiti · #B0C3D9$11.9611.96 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$11.9689.97%24
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.6%contraband 0.0%epic 0.1%restricted 0.1%#EB4B4B 0.1%#ffd700 0.1%#B0C3D9 99.0%best hit $5,113 (427.5x)