Neon Fade
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$50.07
50.07 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $45.06 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
9.85%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic | 1 in 20 | $311 311 CSGOBIG_COIN | 34.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 14 | $214 214 CSGOBIG_COIN | 33.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 12.0% | $56.84 56.84 CSGOBIG_COIN | 15.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $32.21 32.21 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $11.66 11.66 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $4.93 4.93 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified | 26.0% | $0.62 0.62 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=397, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $50.07 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 5.0%covert 19.0%mil spec 15.0%restricted 35.0%classified 26.0%best hit —