5% Knife

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.00

5 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $4.50 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

47.47%

1,034 openings, odds method

Variance

37.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 82

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

149 openings · below min

7 days

43.15%±40.70859 openings

30 days

47.47%±37.091,034 openings

since tracking started

47.47%±37.091,034 openings

-0.5%78.8%158.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (10.38% – 84.56%, 1,034 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	149	59.61%±97.7	—	odds
7d	859	43.15%±40.7	−2.3σ	odds
30d	1,034	47.47%±37.1	−2.2σ	odds
All	1,034	47.47%±37.1	−2.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,036 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 20,000	$1,840 1,840 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$912 912 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 800	$439 439 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,333	$435 435 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.3%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 400	$199 199 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.1%	1	2.6	0.39×
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 400	$150 150 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.3%	1	2.6	0.39×
★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$90.00 90 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.0%	1	5.2	0.19×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 67	$60.00 60 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.0%	20	15.5	1.29×
★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 44	$51.69 51.69 CSGOBIG_COIN	26.2%	15	23.7	0.63×
Sealed Graffiti \| Take Flight (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9	95.0%	$0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	998	984.2	1.01×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=40, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x1h

Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9Jrd$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x1h

Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x1h

Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x4h

Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9DaSpiderX$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x4h

Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$5.00	90.00%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.0%covert 4.1%covert knife 0.9%#B0C3D9 95.0%best hit —