Storm Watch
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$220.53
221 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $198.48 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.02%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
27.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 64
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=405, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9$221221 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $221 | 90.00% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.6%contraband 0.5%extraordinary 1.5%#EB4B4B 3.9%#B0C3D9 90.5%best hit —