Reality Glitch
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$52.90
52.9 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $47.61 from 37 items
Observed RTP, 30d
113.42%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=407, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | pashaBiceps (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · #4B69FF$52.9052.9 CSGOBIG_COIN$60.0060 CSGOBIG_COIN1.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $52.90 | 90.00% | 37 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 6.0%covert knife 4.0%#ffd700 0.0%covert 8.9%#d32ee6 1.0%Covert 3.2%#D32CE6 11.0%Restricted 13.8%extraordinary 3.0%#4B69FF 23.0%high 6.0%Base Grade 3.0%classified 6.0%#8847FF 5.0%base 6.0%best hit —