Lore Galore

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$310.27

310 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $279.25 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

8.07%

8 openings, odds method

Variance

178.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 100

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

8 openings · below min

30 days

8 openings · below min

since tracking started

8 openings · below min

-0.5%467.5%935.5%

Small sample. 8 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	8	8.07%±926.8	—	odds
30d	8	8.07%±926.8	—	odds
All	8	8.07%±926.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$350K 350,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.5%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$81K 81,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$35K 35,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 1,000	$18K 18,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$12K 12,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 145	$8,000 8,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.8%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$4,000 4,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 100	$1,600 1,600 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.7%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$1,400 1,400 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$250 250 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	1	0.2	—
R8 Revolver \| Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9	90.0%	$0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	7	7.2	0.97×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=408, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9$310310 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x6d

★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$310310 CSGOBIG_COIN$200200 CSGOBIG_COIN0.64x6d

R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9$310310 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x6d

R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9Fan$310310 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x6d

R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9$310310 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x6d

R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9Getty$310310 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x6d

R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9$310310 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$310	90.00%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 8.9%legendary 0.1%gold 1.0%#B0C3D9 90.0%best hit —