Juiced 5% Knife

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$10.15

10.15 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.02%

EV $9.14 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

49.10%

292 openings, odds method

Variance

29.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 36

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

18 openings · below min

7 days

57.77%±71.85217 openings

30 days

49.10%±61.94292 openings

since tracking started

49.10%±61.94292 openings

-0.5%125.0%250.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18	0.49%±249.5	—	odds
7d	217	57.77%±71.8	−0.9σ	odds
30d	292	49.10%±61.9	−1.3σ	odds
All	292	49.10%±61.9	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 292 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20,000	$2,750 2,750 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 2,000	$1,450 1,450 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · #ffd700 · Phase 2	1 in 800	$450 450 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.2%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,333	$400 400 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 134	$250 250 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.4%	2	2.2	0.92×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 400	$200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	1	0.7	—
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 67	$179 179 CSGOBIG_COIN	29.4%	3	4.4	0.68×
★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 67	$105 105 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.2%	1	4.4	0.23×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 133	$99.00 99 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.1%	1	2.2	0.46×
R8 Revolver \| Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9	95.0%	$0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	284	277.4	1.02×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=409, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9$10.1510.15 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x4h

R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9$10.1510.15 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x13h

R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9$10.1510.15 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$10.15	90.02%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.9%#ffd700 0.1%#EB4B4B 0.3%Covert 1.5%covert knife 2.3%#B0C3D9 95.0%best hit —