10% Knife V2
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$27.00
27 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $24.30 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
28.91%
344 openings, odds method
Variance
28.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 344 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 344 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 200 | $1,800 1,800 CSGOBIG_COIN | 37.0% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 200 | $740 740 CSGOBIG_COIN | 15.2% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $290 290 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.9% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $245 245 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.1% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $189 189 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.8% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $88.00 88 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.6% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold | 1 in 40 | $74.00 74 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.6% | 7 | 8.6 | 0.81× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 40 | $63.76 63.76 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.6% | 4 | 8.6 | 0.47× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 90.0% | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.1% | 322 | 309.6 | 1.04× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=41, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covertWuened Costa$27.0027 CSGOBIG_COIN$88.0088 CSGOBIG_COIN3.26x
P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerSOARES DY MAMAE -CAMISA DÉS$27.0027 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $27.00 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.5%epic 0.5%gold 2.5%covert knife 2.5%consumer 90.0%best hit —