Merlins Mirage
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22.46
22.46 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $20.21 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
53.43%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
15.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=410, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | coldzera (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · #8847FF$22.4622.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN0.53x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.46 | 89.98% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%extraordinary 1.0%covert 9.6%classified 0.2%#4B69FF 9.0%high 1.0%Base Grade 6.1%#EB4B4B 11.0%#8847FF 8.0%#8847ff 12.0%Classified 17.0%Rare 25.0%best hit —