Monolith

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$6.53

6.53 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.07%

EV $5.88 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

46.60%

141 openings, odds method

Variance

54.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 91

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

96.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

114 openings · below min

30 days

141 openings · below min

since tracking started

141 openings · below min

-0.5%187.8%376.0%

Small sample. 141 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	12.50%±362.7	—	odds
7d	114	41.67%±135.9	—	odds
30d	141	46.60%±122.2	—	odds
All	141	46.60%±122.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 141 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,600 2,600 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,900 1,900 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,100 1,100 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$650 650 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 2,000	$405 405 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$305 305 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 556	$225 225 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.9%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$155 155 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.4%	0	1.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50	$100 100 CSGOBIG_COIN	34.0%	3	2.8	1.06×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	10.0%	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.5%	13	14.1	0.92×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	15.0%	$1.86 1.86 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.7%	31	21.1	1.47×
R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Factory New)weapon · blue	20.0%	$0.18 0.18 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	32	28.2	1.13×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	51.9%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	62	73.2	0.85×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=413, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New)weapon · blue$6.536.53 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.180.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x3h

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$6.536.53 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3h

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$6.536.53 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.861.86 CSGOBIG_COIN0.28x3h

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$6.536.53 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3h

MAC-10 | Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$6.536.53 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.77x3h

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$6.536.53 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.861.86 CSGOBIG_COIN0.28x3h

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New)weapon · blue$6.536.53 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.180.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x3h

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$6.536.53 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3h

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$6.536.53 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.861.86 CSGOBIG_COIN0.28x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.07%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$6.53	90.07%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 13.1%Restricted 0.1%pink 15.0%blue 20.0%consumer 51.9%best hit —