Obsidian

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$57.14

57.14 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.01%

EV $51.43 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

45.78%

11 openings, odds method

Variance

66.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 80

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

11 openings · below min

30 days

11 openings · below min

since tracking started

11 openings · below min

-0.5%591.8%1184.0%

Small sample. 11 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	54.04%±1129.1	—	odds
7d	11	45.78%±481.5	—	odds
30d	11	45.78%±481.5	—	odds
All	11	45.78%±481.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 2,000	$15K 15,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.6%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 1,000	$8,800 8,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 1,000	$4,400 4,400 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$1,100 1,100 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$915 915 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$685 685 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.7%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| DreamHack 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$350 350 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$100 100 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.8%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10	$60.00 60 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.4%	2	1.1	1.86×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red	12.0%	$25.00 25 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.8%	2	1.3	1.52×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	13.0%	$14.00 14 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	1	1.4	0.70×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	0	1.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	18.0%	$1.76 1.76 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	1	2.0	0.51×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	25.0%	$0.49 0.49 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	4	2.8	1.45×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=414, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec$57.1457.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.761.76 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x36m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$57.1457.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$60.0060 CSGOBIG_COIN1.05x36m

M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$57.1457.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.490.49 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x2d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$57.1457.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$60.0060 CSGOBIG_COIN1.05x2d

M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$57.1457.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.490.49 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x2d

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red$57.1457.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN0.44x2d

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · redJACK1$57.1457.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN0.44x2d

M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$57.1457.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.490.49 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x5d

★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$57.1457.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN1.75x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$57.14	90.01%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.3%legendary 0.2%classified 10.1%extraordinary 2.5%remarkable 1.0%red 12.0%Ancient 13.0%restricted 15.0%milspec 18.0%mil spec 25.0%best hit —