Paradox

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$12.84

12.84 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.97%

EV $11.55 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

28.15%

44 openings, odds method

Variance

16.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 42

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

33 openings · below min

30 days

44 openings · below min

since tracking started

44 openings · below min

-0.5%231.5%463.5%

Small sample. 44 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	6.23%±456.8	—	odds
7d	33	14.97%±137.7	—	odds
30d	44	28.15%±119.3	—	odds
All	44	28.15%±119.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,150 1,150 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 667	$685 685 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.9%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 455	$400 400 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 313	$300 300 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 149	$200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 105	$100 100 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 77	$73.00 73 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Well-Worn)gloves · #eb4b4b	1 in 37	$59.00 59 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.8%	0	1.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 26	$35.00 35 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.5%	1	1.7	0.60×
Sticker \| Team EnVyUs (Foil) \| MLG Columbus 2016sticker · #D32CE6	1 in 16	$15.00 15 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.2%	5	2.8	1.80×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	6	3.3	1.82×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12	$3.00 3 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.2%	4	3.7	1.10×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Toy Soldier (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	12.5%	$1.00 1 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	3	5.5	0.55×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	19.5%	$0.40 0.4 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	7	8.6	0.82×
G3SG1 \| Ventilator (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	35.7%	$0.07 0.07 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	18	15.7	1.14×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=415, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$12.8412.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x3h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$12.8412.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.400.4 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x3h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$12.8412.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.39x1d

G3SG1 | Ventilator (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec$12.8412.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.070.07 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x1d

StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedilovebigspins$12.8412.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN0.23x1d

Sticker | Team EnVyUs (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016sticker · #D32CE6$12.8412.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN1.17x1d

G3SG1 | Ventilator (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec$12.8412.84 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.070.07 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$12.84	89.97%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.3%extraordinary 0.1%restricted 12.7%rare 0.3%covert knife 0.7%#eb4b4b 2.7%industrial 3.8%#D32CE6 6.3%classified 15.8%milspec 55.2%best hit —