Pixel Pop

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$10.21

10.21 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $9.19 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

55.12%

10 openings, odds method

Variance

6.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

10 openings · below min

since tracking started

10 openings · below min

-0.5%113.3%227.0%

Small sample. 10 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	16.08%±210.3	—	odds
30d	10	55.12%±162.9	—	odds
All	10	55.12%±162.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20,000	$1,450 1,450 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$917 917 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,000	$785 785 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$105 105 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Phase 2)weapon · red · Phase 2	1 in 20	$70.00 70 CSGOBIG_COIN	38.1%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$39.00 39 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.7%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$26.00 26 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.5%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.0%	$15.00 15 CSGOBIG_COIN	16.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
Sticker \| Sticker Bomb Surf K (Foil)sticker · exotic	10.8%	$3.48 3.48 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	15.0%	$3.31 3.31 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.4%	1	1.5	0.67×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	15.0%	$3.00 3 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.9%	3	1.5	2.00×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	18.0%	$1.12 1.12 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.2%	4	1.8	2.22×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$0.49 0.49 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	1	2.0	0.50×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=417, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$10.2110.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN0.29x1d

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$10.2110.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.121.12 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x1d

M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specda ander$10.2110.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.490.49 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x1d

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$10.2110.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.121.12 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x1d

StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$10.2110.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN0.29x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$10.21	90.00%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 3.1%covert knife 0.1%red 5.0%milspec 3.0%classified 25.0%exotic 10.8%Mythical 15.0%#8847FF 18.0%mil spec 20.0%best hit —