Budget 10% Knife V2
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.88
10.88 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $9.79 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
51.34%
147 openings, odds method
Variance
12.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 147 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 147 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 1,000 | $520 520 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 667 | $400 400 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $375 375 CSGOBIG_COIN | 9.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $228 228 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $105 105 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 100 | $89.00 89 CSGOBIG_COIN | 9.1% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.04× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $79.00 79 CSGOBIG_COIN | 16.1% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $60.77 60.77 CSGOBIG_COIN | 31.0% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.82× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 90.0% | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.4% | 136 | 132.3 | 1.03× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=42, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700$10.8810.88 CSGOBIG_COIN$89.0089 CSGOBIG_COIN8.18x
P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerCalz$10.8810.88 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.88 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 5.1%Covert 0.1%covert 3.8%#ffd700 1.0%consumer 90.0%best hit —