Feeling It

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.69

1.69 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.16%

EV $1.52 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

67.15%

35 openings, odds method

Variance

7.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

40.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

59.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

31 openings · below min

30 days

35 openings · below min

since tracking started

35 openings · below min

-0.5%85.0%170.5%

Small sample. 35 openings and 14.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	31	73.68%±96.0	—	odds
30d	35	67.15%±90.3	—	odds
All	35	67.15%±90.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$150 150 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$140 140 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$130 130 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$120 120 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$120 120 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$100 100 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 2,500	$90.00 90 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	40.0%	$3.00 3 CSGOBIG_COIN	78.8%	11	14.0	0.79×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	59.9%	$0.28 0.28 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.0%	24	21.0	1.15×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=421, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedDefault Name$1.691.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN1.78x1d

StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedLiudmila doroceanc$1.691.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN1.78x1d

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetsnixer34$1.691.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.280.28 CSGOBIG_COIN0.17x1d

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetLDR$1.691.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.280.28 CSGOBIG_COIN0.17x1d

StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedZor$1.691.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN1.78x1d

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$1.691.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.280.28 CSGOBIG_COIN0.17x1d

StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedZor$1.691.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN1.78x1d

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$1.691.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.280.28 CSGOBIG_COIN0.17x1d

StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$1.691.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN1.78x2d

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetZor$1.691.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.280.28 CSGOBIG_COIN0.17x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.16%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.69	90.16%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 0.1%covert knife 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%classified 40.0%violet 59.9%best hit —