Skins In The City
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.55
6.55 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $5.89 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
8.46%
7 openings, odds method
Variance
6.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 7 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=424, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$6.556.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$6.556.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.280.28 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$6.556.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$6.556.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.280.28 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.55 | 89.95% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.1%covert knife 1.0%#eb4b4b 1.0%milspec 1.0%classified 25.9%restricted 15.0%#8847FF 15.0%violet 40.0%best hit —