The Come Up

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$29.54

29.54 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $26.58 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.56%

18 openings, odds method

Variance

6.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

18 openings · below min

30 days

18 openings · below min

since tracking started

18 openings · below min

-0.5%99.8%200.0%

Small sample. 18 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	18	82.56%±116.7	—	odds
30d	18	82.56%±116.7	—	odds
All	18	82.56%±116.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$6,000 6,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 20,000	$5,500 5,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ BayonetStatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$450 450 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$250 250 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$215 215 CSGOBIG_COIN	24.3%	1	0.5	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 33	$150 150 CSGOBIG_COIN	16.9%	0	0.5	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$100 100 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.8%	1	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	10.0%	$39.00 39 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.7%	1	1.8	0.56×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$23.00 23 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.7%	1	1.8	0.56×
Sticker \| Snax (Foil) \| Krakow 2017sticker · remarkable	10.0%	$14.00 14 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.3%	2	1.8	1.11×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	10.8%	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	3	2.0	1.54×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	15.0%	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	1	2.7	0.37×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	18.0%	$3.00 3 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	3	3.2	0.93×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	15.0%	$1.00 1 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	5	2.7	1.85×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=426, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$29.5429.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$23.0023 CSGOBIG_COIN0.78x1d

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$29.5429.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x1d

StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedda ander$29.5429.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x1d

AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$29.5429.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.17x1d

StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedNbWzen$29.5429.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.17x1d

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$29.5429.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x1d

Sticker | Snax (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · remarkable$29.5429.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.0014 CSGOBIG_COIN0.47x1d

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$29.5429.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x1d

★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$29.5429.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN3.39x1d

Sticker | Snax (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · remarkable$29.5429.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.0014 CSGOBIG_COIN0.47x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$29.54	89.99%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 21.1%contraband 0.0%covert knife 0.1%classified 43.0%remarkable 10.0%restricted 10.8%#8847FF 15.0%best hit —