Crimson Romance
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$105.08
105 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $94.58 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
152.22%
33 openings, odds method
Variance
20.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 33 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $4,666 4,666 CSGOBIG_COIN | 49.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $506 506 CSGOBIG_COIN | 16.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 14 | $354 354 CSGOBIG_COIN | 26.2% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 13.0% | $28.33 28.33 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.9% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified | 21.0% | $11.60 11.6 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.6% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| FAMAS | Roll Cage (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 25.0% | $5.46 5.46 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.4% | 11 | 8.3 | 1.33× |
| USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $1.52 1.52 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.5% | 10 | 9.9 | 1.01× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=433, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$105105 CSGOBIG_COIN$4,6664,666 CSGOBIG_COIN44.40x
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified$105105 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.6011.6 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified$105105 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.6011.6 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$105105 CSGOBIG_COIN$28.3328.33 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$105105 CSGOBIG_COIN$28.3328.33 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classifiedwankywobbles$105105 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.6011.6 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $105 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 42.0%covert knife 7.0%classified 21.0%restricted 30.0%best hit $4,666 (44.40x)