Heartbreaker
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39.16
39.16 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $35.25 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
479.51%
2 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $901 901 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $361 361 CSGOBIG_COIN | 41.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $74.27 74.27 CSGOBIG_COIN | 25.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified | 16.0% | $44.56 44.56 CSGOBIG_COIN | 20.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 18.0% | $14.41 14.41 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 19.0% | $4.19 4.19 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 30.9% | $1.52 1.52 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=434, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$39.1639.16 CSGOBIG_COIN$361361 CSGOBIG_COIN9.22x
Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$39.1639.16 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.4114.41 CSGOBIG_COIN0.37x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $39.16 | 90.01% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 46.1%covert 4.0%restricted 49.9%best hit —