Guns & Roses
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.14
14.14 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $12.72 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.47%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $165 165 CSGOBIG_COIN | 51.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $30.14 30.14 CSGOBIG_COIN | 19.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink | 13.0% | $14.24 14.24 CSGOBIG_COIN | 14.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| FAMAS | Roll Cage (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $5.46 5.46 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 17.0% | $4.19 4.19 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 18.0% | $1.35 1.35 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| USP-S | Check Engine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $0.34 0.34 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=435, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Check Engine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$14.1414.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.340.34 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertNecrz25$14.1414.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$30.1430.14 CSGOBIG_COIN2.13x
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted$14.1414.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.194.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $14.14 | 89.98% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 27.0%pink 13.0%restricted 35.0%mil spec 25.0%best hit —