Cobalt Rose
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.13
9.13 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $8.21 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.76%
5 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 5 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $144 144 CSGOBIG_COIN | 17.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $36.58 36.58 CSGOBIG_COIN | 22.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 13 | $21.06 21.06 CSGOBIG_COIN | 20.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 13.0% | $13.23 13.23 CSGOBIG_COIN | 20.9% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $5.30 5.3 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 23.0% | $1.46 1.46 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| AUG | Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=437, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$9.139.13 CSGOBIG_COIN$13.2313.23 CSGOBIG_COIN1.45x
PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted$9.139.13 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.305.3 CSGOBIG_COIN0.58x
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$9.139.13 CSGOBIG_COIN$13.2313.23 CSGOBIG_COIN1.45x
AUG | Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$9.139.13 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.480.48 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Factory New)weapon · pink$9.139.13 CSGOBIG_COIN$21.0621.06 CSGOBIG_COIN2.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.13 | 89.96% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 14.0%industrial 5.0%pink 8.0%restricted 50.0%mil spec 23.0%best hit —