Nuke Meltdown

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$18.85

18.85 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $16.96 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

45.84%

22 openings, odds method

Variance

9.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 27

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

13 openings · below min

30 days

22 openings · below min

since tracking started

22 openings · below min

-0.5%112.3%225.0%

Small sample. 22 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	13	56.62%±167.6	—	odds
30d	22	45.84%±128.9	—	odds
All	22	45.84%±128.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #D32CE6	1 in 400	$875 875 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 200	$405 405 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.9%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$205 205 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.1%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut KnifeStatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$125 125 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$60.00 60 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.6%	1	0.7	—
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$23.96 23.96 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.6%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 14	$19.83 19.83 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.2%	1	1.5	0.65×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$15.22 15.22 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.2%	3	1.8	1.70×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$11.23 11.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.0%	4	2.0	2.02×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	10.0%	$9.60 9.6 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.7%	0	2.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$3.95 3.95 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	3	3.3	0.91×
R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue	17.0%	$1.46 1.46 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	5	3.7	1.34×
Sticker \| Nuke Beaststicker · #4b69ff	23.3%	$0.11 0.11 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	5	5.1	0.98×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=439, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue$18.8518.85 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.461.46 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x3d

USP-S | Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$18.8518.85 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.953.95 CSGOBIG_COIN0.21x3d

Sticker | Nuke Beaststicker · #4b69ffyen$18.8518.85 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.110.11 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x3d

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red$18.8518.85 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.8319.83 CSGOBIG_COIN1.05x3d

R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue$18.8518.85 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.461.46 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x6d

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$18.8518.85 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.2311.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.60x6d

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$18.8518.85 CSGOBIG_COIN$15.2215.22 CSGOBIG_COIN0.81x6d

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$18.8518.85 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.2311.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.60x6d

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$18.8518.85 CSGOBIG_COIN$60.0060 CSGOBIG_COIN3.18x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$18.85	89.99%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#D32CE6 0.3%gold 0.5%covert 11.0%covert knife 2.0%extraordinary 3.0%classified 21.0%red 7.0%mil spec 15.0%blue 17.0%#4b69ff 23.3%best hit —