Blood Moon
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$56.32
56.32 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $50.68 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.62%
10 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 10 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,485 1,485 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $581 581 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $174 174 CSGOBIG_COIN | 20.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 11 | $143 143 CSGOBIG_COIN | 25.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert | 17.0% | $73.36 73.36 CSGOBIG_COIN | 24.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 19.0% | $18.37 18.37 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.9% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× |
| SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink | 21.0% | $14.24 14.24 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× |
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 26.9% | $4.19 4.19 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.2% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=443, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted$56.3256.32 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.194.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x
★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$56.3256.32 CSGOBIG_COIN$143143 CSGOBIG_COIN2.54x
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted$56.3256.32 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.194.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x
USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$56.3256.32 CSGOBIG_COIN$18.3718.37 CSGOBIG_COIN0.33x
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted$56.3256.32 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.194.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x
USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertkubis_1$56.3256.32 CSGOBIG_COIN$18.3718.37 CSGOBIG_COIN0.33x
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covertkubis_1$56.3256.32 CSGOBIG_COIN$73.3673.36 CSGOBIG_COIN1.30x
SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pinkkubis_1$56.3256.32 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.2414.24 CSGOBIG_COIN0.25x
★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertkubis_1$56.3256.32 CSGOBIG_COIN$143143 CSGOBIG_COIN2.54x
SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pinkkubis_1$56.3256.32 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.2414.24 CSGOBIG_COIN0.25x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $56.32 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 51.1%extraordinary 1.0%pink 21.0%restricted 26.9%best hit —