Silent Assassin
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26.57
26.57 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $23.91 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.06%
30 openings, odds method
Variance
31.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 30 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 200 | $2,100 2,100 CSGOBIG_COIN | 43.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 40 | $141 141 CSGOBIG_COIN | 14.7% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 33 | $58.13 58.13 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.3% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $26.99 26.99 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.3% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 13.0% | $13.63 13.63 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.4% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.54× |
| MP7 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 20.0% | $10.96 10.96 CSGOBIG_COIN | 9.2% | 3 | 6.0 | 0.50× |
| MP9 | Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6 | 23.0% | $4.74 4.74 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.6% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.72× |
| Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 28.0% | $1.40 1.4 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.6% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=444, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · RareRuffandReady$26.5726.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.401.4 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
MP7 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$26.5726.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.9610.96 CSGOBIG_COIN0.41x
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$26.5726.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$26.9926.99 CSGOBIG_COIN1.02x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$26.5726.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$13.6313.63 CSGOBIG_COIN0.51x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBadbetsy$26.5726.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$13.6313.63 CSGOBIG_COIN0.51x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $26.57 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.5%red 5.5%Legendary 10.0%classified 13.0%Mil Spec Grade 20.0%#d32ee6 23.0%Rare 28.0%best hit —