Ghost Protocol
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.77
16.77 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $15.10 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
16.00%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
38.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 63
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=445, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$16.7716.77 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.903.9 CSGOBIG_COIN0.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $16.77 | 90.01% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.6%extraordinary 1.0%blue 7.4%pink 15.0%Consumer Grade 18.0%Mythical 21.0%restricted 30.0%best hit —