Goldmine

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$420.53

421 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $378.48 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

10.58%

2 openings, odds method

Variance

5.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

30 days

2 openings · below min

since tracking started

2 openings · below min

-0.5%168.5%337.5%

Small sample. 2 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	0	—	—	—
30d	2	10.58%±326.2	—	odds
All	2	10.58%±326.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$45.3K 45,290 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$14K 14,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 714	$9,600 9,600 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.6%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$6,500 6,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 250	$5,500 5,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$4,300 4,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 100	$3,000 3,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.9%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$1,900 1,900 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$1,162 1,162 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 20	$950 950 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 17	$584 584 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 17	$250 250 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 13	$150 150 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 11	$75.00 75 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	1	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	12.0%	$43.00 43 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	17.0%	$23.00 23 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| Snax (Foil) \| Krakow 2017sticker · remarkable	25.5%	$14.00 14 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	1	0.5	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=448, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.

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Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$421	90.00%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 50.1%contraband 0.4%legendary 6.0%extraordinary 12.0%epic 6.0%remarkable 25.5%best hit —