50-50
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.00
14 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $12.60 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.73%
17 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 17 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander (Battle-Scarred)gloves · #EB4B4B | 1 in 100 | $127 127 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 40 | $43.00 43 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 12 | $39.00 39 CSGOBIG_COIN | 26.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 13.0% | $24.00 24 CSGOBIG_COIN | 24.8% | 6 | 2.5 | 2.43× |
| Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified | 25.0% | $15.20 15.2 CSGOBIG_COIN | 30.2% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 50.0% | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.2% | 10 | 9.5 | 1.05× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=45, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · ClassifiedPepaRambo$14.0014 CSGOBIG_COIN$15.2015.2 CSGOBIG_COIN1.09x
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified$14.0014 CSGOBIG_COIN$15.2015.2 CSGOBIG_COIN1.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $14.00 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 1.0%red 2.5%covert 8.5%classified 13.0%Classified 25.0%consumer 50.0%best hit —