Case Closed
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$103.20
103 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $92.88 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
29.07%
2 openings, odds method
Variance
16.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=456, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | coldzera (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · #8847FF$103103 CSGOBIG_COIN$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN0.12x
Sticker | markeloff | Cologne 2016sticker · #4B69FFsvirkstas$103103 CSGOBIG_COIN$48.0048 CSGOBIG_COIN0.47x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $103 | 90.00% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.9%legendary 0.0%#EB4B4B 12.5%extraordinary 1.0%covert knife 0.3%classified 17.6%#4B69FF 30.5%#8847FF 15.3%#B0C3D9 20.9%best hit —