Fortune's Favour

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$53.14

53.14 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $47.83 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.53%

10 openings, odds method

Variance

151.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 323

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

98.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

10 openings · below min

30 days

10 openings · below min

since tracking started

10 openings · below min

-0.5%420.0%840.5%

Small sample. 10 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	10	77.53%±762.3	—	odds
30d	10	77.53%±762.3	—	odds
All	10	77.53%±762.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$48K 48,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 5,000	$15.9K 15,900 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.6%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$12K 12,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$11.3K 11,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$4,800 4,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.0%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$4,300 4,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband	1 in 2,000	$3,800 3,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$3,100 3,100 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$2,800 2,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 2,000	$1,700 1,700 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$1,650 1,650 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	0	0.0	—
Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9	1 in 2,000	$1,300 1,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$350 350 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$314 314 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 200	$290 290 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	1	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 286	$200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Titan \| Cluj-Napoca 2015sticker · high	1 in 33	$50.00 50 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| markeloff \| Cologne 2016sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 33	$48.00 48 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.3	—
ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Packagecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 33	$44.00 44 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| peet \| Cologne 2015sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 20	$42.00 42 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.4%	1	0.5	—
Sticker \| FalleN (Foil) \| Cologne 2015sticker · #D32CE6	1 in 100	$41.00 41 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$35.00 35 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.2%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| captainMo \| Boston 2018sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 33	$30.00 30 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.9%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| Rickeh (Gold) \| Katowice 2019sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 100	$28.00 28 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| B1ad3 (Foil) \| Cologne 2015sticker · #D32CE6	1 in 20	$22.00 22 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	0	0.5	—
Sticker \| nawwk (Gold) \| Copenhagen 2024sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 33	$20.00 20 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| tenzki \| Cluj-Napoca 2015sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 33	$17.00 17 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| coldzera (Foil) \| Krakow 2017sticker · #8847FF	1 in 20	$12.00 12 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	2	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 17	$11.00 11 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	3	0.6	—
Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 11	$10.00 10 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.9	—
UMP-45 \| Caramel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #B0C3D9	17.0%	$9.00 9 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	2	1.7	1.18×
Sticker \| OpTic Gaming \| Atlanta 2017sticker · high	1 in 33	$8.00 8 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	0.3	—
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$7.00 7 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Well-Worn)weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 50	$6.00 6 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Neck Deep, Life's Not Out To Get Youmusic kit · #4B69FF	1 in 20	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	0.5	—
Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Packagecontainer · base	1 in 17	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	0	0.6	—
Patch \| Entropiq (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021patch · #8847FF	1 in 20	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	1	0.5	—
P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 21	$3.00 3 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.5	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=457, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$53.1453.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.0011 CSGOBIG_COIN0.21x2d

Patch | Entropiq (Gold) | Stockholm 2021patch · #8847FF$53.1453.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.09x2d

StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$53.1453.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.0011 CSGOBIG_COIN0.21x3d

★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert$53.1453.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$290290 CSGOBIG_COIN5.46x3d

Sticker | coldzera (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · #8847FF$53.1453.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN0.23x3d

UMP-45 | Caramel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #B0C3D9$53.1453.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$9.009 CSGOBIG_COIN0.17x4d

Sticker | peet | Cologne 2015sticker · #4B69FF$53.1453.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$42.0042 CSGOBIG_COIN0.79x4d

Sticker | coldzera (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · #8847FF$53.1453.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN0.23x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$53.14	90.00%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 6.8%contraband 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%#EB4B4B 4.4%#B0C3D9 17.1%high 6.0%#4B69FF 21.0%Base Grade 3.0%#D32CE6 6.0%classified 6.0%#8847FF 10.0%Restricted 8.8%base 6.0%#8847ff 4.8%best hit —