Cache-22

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$11.69

11.69 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $10.52 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

150.98%

13 openings, odds method

Variance

3.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

13 openings · below min

30 days

13 openings · below min

since tracking started

13 openings · below min

-0.5%129.5%259.5%

Small sample. 13 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	97.31%±158.6	—	odds
7d	13	150.98%±107.8	—	odds
30d	13	150.98%±107.8	—	odds
All	13	150.98%±107.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 100,000	$700 700 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100,000	$700 700 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$550 550 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$450 450 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 20,000	$380 380 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$380 380 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$300 300 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$298 298 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$160 160 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 200	$71.00 71 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 35	$69.00 69 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.9%	2	0.4	—
Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 33	$68.00 68 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.4%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 22	$54.00 54 CSGOBIG_COIN	23.1%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 17	$23.00 23 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.1%	0	0.8	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 13	$23.00 23 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.4%	1	1.0	0.97×
R8 Revolver \| Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9	75.0%	$0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	9	9.8	0.92×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=458, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9NbWzen$11.6911.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x17h

Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Factory New)weapon · rare$11.6911.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$68.0068 CSGOBIG_COIN5.82x17h

R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9$11.6911.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x17h

R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9$11.6911.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x4d

R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9DaSpiderX$11.6911.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x4d

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$11.6911.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$23.0023 CSGOBIG_COIN1.97x4d

R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9$11.6911.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$11.69	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 0.0%covert 10.6%extraordinary 0.1%gold 0.5%rare 5.9%Legendary 8.0%#B0C3D9 75.0%best hit —