Hope

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.00

5 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.97%

EV $4.50 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

39.22%

44 openings, odds method

Variance

13.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

14 openings · below min

7 days

43 openings · below min

30 days

44 openings · below min

since tracking started

44 openings · below min

-0.5%111.8%224.0%

Small sample. 44 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14	31.57%±191.7	—	odds
7d	43	39.87%±109.4	—	odds
30d	44	39.22%±108.1	—	odds
All	44	39.22%±108.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$135 135 CSGOBIG_COIN	30.0%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 100	$126 126 CSGOBIG_COIN	28.0%	0	0.4	—
Sticker \| tenzki \| Cluj-Napoca 2015sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 33	$17.00 17 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.3%	1	1.3	0.76×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$7.00 7 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.7%	2	1.3	1.52×
Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Well-Worn)weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 20	$6.00 6 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.7%	3	2.2	1.36×
Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Packagecontainer · base	1 in 20	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.6%	2	2.2	0.91×
P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$3.00 3 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	3	2.2	1.36×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 17	$2.00 2 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	1	2.6	0.39×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$1.00 1 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	3	3.5	0.85×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	14.0%	$0.74 0.74 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	8	6.2	1.30×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	$0.58 0.58 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	6	3.5	1.70×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · industrial	10.0%	$0.54 0.54 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	2	4.4	0.45×
R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Factory New)weapon · blue	14.0%	$0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	7	6.2	1.14×
PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	17.1%	$0.20 0.2 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	6	7.5	0.80×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=460, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.580.58 CSGOBIG_COIN0.12x14h

P2000 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN0.60x14h

Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.580.58 CSGOBIG_COIN0.12x14h

UMP-45 | Exposure (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.740.74 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x14h

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.200.2 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x14h

UMP-45 | Exposure (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.740.74 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x14h

Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.580.58 CSGOBIG_COIN0.12x14h

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.200.2 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x14h

P2000 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN0.60x14h

USP-S | Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · industrialJGHD23YT$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.540.54 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$5.00	89.97%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 1.0%#EB4B4B 1.0%#4B69FF 8.0%classified 3.0%base 5.0%#8847ff 5.0%Classified 5.9%Rare 8.0%restricted 14.0%#4b69ff 8.0%industrial 10.0%blue 14.0%milspec 17.1%best hit —