Dream.exe

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$19.37

19.37 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.01%

EV $17.43 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

56.43%

29 openings, odds method

Variance

73.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

28 openings · below min

30 days

29 openings · below min

since tracking started

29 openings · below min

-0.5%184.5%369.5%

Small sample. 29 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	28	49.23%±317.8	—	odds
30d	29	56.43%±312.3	—	odds
All	29	56.43%±312.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$15K 15,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.6%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$2,800 2,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 400	$500 500 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 145	$260 260 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.3%	0	0.2	—
ESL One Cologne 2014 Legendsother · base	1 in 100	$90.00 90 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$80.00 80 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.2%	0	0.6	—
USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$50.00 50 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.6%	2	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$30.00 30 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.0%	2	2.0	0.99×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	13.0%	$20.00 20 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.9%	3	3.8	0.80×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	10.0%	$10.00 10 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.7%	5	2.9	1.72×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	19.0%	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.4%	6	5.5	1.09×
AUG \| Colony (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777	20.0%	$3.00 3 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	3	5.8	0.52×
P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	24.0%	$1.00 1 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	8	7.0	1.15×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=464, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Colony (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$19.3719.37 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x1d

AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$19.3719.37 CSGOBIG_COIN$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN1.55x1d

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$19.3719.37 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN0.52x1d

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertPepaRambo$19.3719.37 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.26x1d

USP-S | Caiman (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$19.3719.37 CSGOBIG_COIN$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN2.58x1d

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$19.3719.37 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.26x1d

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedKryux$19.3719.37 CSGOBIG_COIN$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN1.03x1d

P250 | Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$19.3719.37 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x1d

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$19.3719.37 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.26x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$19.37	90.01%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 27.0%base 1.0%classified 15.0%restricted 37.0%#777777 20.0%best hit —