Vigilance

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$182.72

183 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $164.44 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

36.67%

9 openings, odds method

Variance

37.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 33

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

9 openings · below min

30 days

9 openings · below min

since tracking started

9 openings · below min

-0.5%259.8%520.0%

Small sample. 9 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	32.65%±486.5	—	odds
7d	9	36.67%±397.3	—	odds
30d	9	36.67%±397.3	—	odds
All	9	36.67%±397.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$42K 42,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$18K 18,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$7,500 7,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 333	$4,650 4,650 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$2,850 2,850 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.7%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$1,965 1,965 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 77	$950 950 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 33	$485 485 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert	1 in 14	$265 265 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.3%	0	0.6	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	10.0%	$195 195 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.9%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 11	$100 100 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	1	0.8	—
P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	11.0%	$46.00 46 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	0	1.0	—
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	14.0%	$25.00 25 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	4	1.3	3.17×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert	17.0%	$10.00 10 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	1	1.5	0.65×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	26.0%	$3.00 3 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	1	2.3	0.43×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=466, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$183183 CSGOBIG_COIN$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN0.55x14h

M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$183183 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x14h

Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$183183 CSGOBIG_COIN$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN0.14x14h

★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife$183183 CSGOBIG_COIN$195195 CSGOBIG_COIN1.07x14h

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert$183183 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x14h

Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrialJACK1$183183 CSGOBIG_COIN$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN0.14x14h

★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife$183183 CSGOBIG_COIN$195195 CSGOBIG_COIN1.07x4d

Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$183183 CSGOBIG_COIN$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN0.14x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$183	90.00%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 30.3%extraordinary 0.1%contraband 0.3%Covert 8.3%covert knife 10.0%mil spec 11.0%industrial 14.0%restricted 26.0%best hit —