Ducky

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$18.54

18.54 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $16.69 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

58.64%

23 openings, odds method

Variance

28.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

23 openings · below min

30 days

23 openings · below min

since tracking started

23 openings · below min

-0.5%138.3%277.0%

Small sample. 23 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	23	58.64%±217.9	—	odds
30d	23	58.64%±217.9	—	odds
All	23	58.64%±217.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$8,050 8,050 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,333	$1,900 1,900 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,600 1,600 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$800 800 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,250	$750 750 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$400 400 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$335 335 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$288 288 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 500	$195 195 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$135 135 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$105 105 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$65.00 65 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$50.00 50 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.0%	0	0.9	—
M4A4 \| Zirka (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$30.00 30 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.0%	5	1.8	2.79×
USP-S \| Para Green (Field-Tested)weapon · 2	11.0%	$20.00 20 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	15.0%	$10.00 10 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.0%	7	3.4	2.03×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	27.0%	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.1%	6	6.2	0.97×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	31.0%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	5	7.1	0.70×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=467, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Zirka (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$18.5418.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN1.62x1d

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$18.5418.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

MAC-10 | Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff$18.5418.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN0.54x1d

StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$18.5418.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x1d

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerkisu$18.5418.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$18.5418.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x2d

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$18.5418.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2d

MAC-10 | Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff$18.5418.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN0.54x2d

M4A4 | Zirka (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$18.5418.54 CSGOBIG_COIN$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN1.62x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$18.54	90.00%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 11.0%covert 4.4%covert knife 1.5%Extraordinary 0.1%#d32ee6 0.2%extraordinary 2.0%violet 7.8%#8847ff 15.0%Mythical 27.0%consumer 31.0%best hit —