Streamer

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$9.05

9.05 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $8.14 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

53.63%

32 openings, odds method

Variance

83.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

32 openings · below min

30 days

32 openings · below min

since tracking started

32 openings · below min

-0.5%414.5%829.5%

Small sample. 32 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	29.06%±799.6	—	odds
7d	32	53.63%±316.1	—	odds
30d	32	53.63%±316.1	—	odds
All	32	53.63%±316.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100,000	$15K 15,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 100,000	$11K 11,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 20,000	$5,250 5,250 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 12,500	$3,500 3,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$1,800 1,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$1,300 1,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,222	$500 500 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$290 290 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.6%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$120 120 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$50.00 50 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.1%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$25.00 25 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.4%	2	1.9	1.04×
Desert Eagle \| Night (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	10.0%	$15.00 15 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.4%	3	3.2	0.94×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	15.0%	$10.00 10 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.4%	4	4.8	0.83×
Souvenir AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 13	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.9%	1	2.6	0.39×
P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$1.00 1 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	11	4.8	2.29×
Stockholm 2021 Finalists Autograph Capsulecontainer · #B0C3D9	19.0%	$0.68 0.68 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	5	6.1	0.82×
Paris 2023 Contenders Autograph Capsulecontainer · #B0C3D9	25.3%	$0.15 0.15 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	6	8.1	0.74×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=468, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Paris 2023 Contenders Autograph Capsulecontainer · #B0C3D9$9.059.05 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.150.15 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x10h

P250 | Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$9.059.05 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x10h

P250 | Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$9.059.05 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x13h

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$9.059.05 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN1.10x13h

Desert Eagle | Night (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialTW SyroG0$9.059.05 CSGOBIG_COIN$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN1.66x1d

Stockholm 2021 Finalists Autograph Capsulecontainer · #B0C3D9$9.059.05 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.680.68 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x2d

P250 | Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$9.059.05 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x2d

Paris 2023 Contenders Autograph Capsulecontainer · #B0C3D9$9.059.05 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.150.15 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x2d

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$9.059.05 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN1.10x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$9.05	90.00%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%legendary 0.0%classified 16.0%restricted 15.5%industrial 16.0%Mil Spec 8.0%#B0C3D9 44.3%best hit —