Bargain
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.41
2.41 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2.17 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.62%
152 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $22.00 22 CSGOBIG_COIN | 25.4% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $6.50 6.5 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.5% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.32× |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Roll Cage (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $5.60 5.6 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.5% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 20 | $5.50 5.5 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.7% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.32× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $4.50 4.5 CSGOBIG_COIN | 15.6% | 10 | 11.4 | 0.88× |
| M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $3.40 3.4 CSGOBIG_COIN | 31.4% | 30 | 30.4 | 0.99× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 60.0% | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.1% | 92 | 91.2 | 1.01× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=47, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerZor$2.412.41 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerZor$2.412.41 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · mil specChicken WIng$2.412.41 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.403.4 CSGOBIG_COIN1.41x
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$2.412.41 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.504.5 CSGOBIG_COIN1.87x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.41 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 12.5%covert 2.5%Ancient 5.0%mil spec 20.0%consumer 60.0%best hit —