Splash

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$78.61

78.61 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $70.75 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.11%

7 openings, odds method

Variance

40.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 56

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

7 openings · below min

30 days

7 openings · below min

since tracking started

7 openings · below min

-0.5%291.5%583.5%

Small sample. 7 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	76.40%±506.5	—	odds
7d	7	81.11%±468.9	—	odds
30d	7	81.11%±468.9	—	odds
All	7	81.11%±468.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 5,000	$16.5K 16,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 2,000	$13.5K 13,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 2,000	$11K 11,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 1,250	$5,000 5,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$3,000 3,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.2%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 333	$1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$960 960 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 143	$650 650 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 25	$150 150 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.5%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$115 115 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.0%	1	0.6	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Battle-Scarred)gloves · Extraordinary	14.2%	$86.00 86 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.3%	2	1.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$42.00 42 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$29.00 29 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #EB4B4B	10.0%	$16.00 16 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	20.0%	$4.00 4 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	2	1.4	1.43×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	30.0%	$1.35 1.35 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	1	2.1	0.48×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=470, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Battle-Scarred)gloves · Extraordinary$78.6178.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$86.0086 CSGOBIG_COIN1.09x16h

★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$78.6178.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$150150 CSGOBIG_COIN1.91x16h

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$78.6178.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x16h

StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$78.6178.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.351.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x16h

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified@jordanr$78.6178.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x16h

M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert$78.6178.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$115115 CSGOBIG_COIN1.46x16h

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Battle-Scarred)gloves · Extraordinary$78.6178.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$86.0086 CSGOBIG_COIN1.09x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$78.61	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 13.3%legendary 0.1%contraband 0.1%Covert 0.3%Extraordinary 14.2%restricted 5.0%classified 27.0%#EB4B4B 10.0%Restricted 30.0%best hit —