5% Fantasy
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$200.00
200 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $180.01 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.02%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
31.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary | 1 in 100 | $10K 10,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 55.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $5,000 5,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 27.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,400 1,400 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $950 950 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $647 647 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 95.0% | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.0% | 18 | 17.1 | 1.05× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=48, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerDefault Name$200200 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $200 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 1.0%covert 4.0%consumer 95.0%best hit —