Miniscule
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.40
0.4 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $0.36 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.27%
73 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 73 openings and 14.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 73 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 20 | $1.25 1.25 CSGOBIG_COIN | 17.4% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| USP-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 1 in 20 | $1.05 1.05 CSGOBIG_COIN | 14.6% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.64× |
| CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted | 10.0% | $0.89 0.89 CSGOBIG_COIN | 24.7% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× |
| Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $0.57 0.57 CSGOBIG_COIN | 15.8% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× |
| Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.9% | 12 | 7.3 | 1.64× |
| Dual Berettas | Ventilators (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $0.19 0.19 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.3% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× |
| StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF | 10.0% | $0.14 0.14 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.9% | 4 | 7.3 | 0.55× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 40.0% | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.4% | 28 | 29.2 | 0.96× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=49, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Ventilators (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$0.400.4 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.190.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.48x
USP-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueNeroathar$0.400.4 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.051.05 CSGOBIG_COIN2.63x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.40 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMythical 5.0%blue 5.0%Restricted 10.0%mil spec 20.0%restricted 10.0%#4B69FF 10.0%consumer 40.0%best hit —