Pistol Lunacy

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.70

7.7 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.01%

EV $6.93 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

67.61%

34 openings, odds method

Variance

9.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 33

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

32 openings · below min

30 days

34 openings · below min

since tracking started

34 openings · below min

-0.5%89.0%178.5%

Small sample. 34 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	32	68.82%±108.9	—	odds
30d	34	67.61%±105.7	—	odds
All	34	67.61%±105.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$260 260 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.8%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 200	$174 174 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.6%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$98.00 98 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.1%	1	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$36.00 36 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.2%	0	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$27.00 27 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.8%	0	0.7	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$17.00 17 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.1%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 40	$15.00 15 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.4%	1	0.9	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$8.18 8.18 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.9%	0	1.7	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	10.0%	$5.99 5.99 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.6%	4	3.4	1.18×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	75.0%	$1.43 1.43 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.5%	28	25.5	1.10×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=51, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$7.707.7 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.431.43 CSGOBIG_COIN0.19x1d

R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$7.707.7 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.995.99 CSGOBIG_COIN0.78x1d

StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$7.707.7 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.431.43 CSGOBIG_COIN0.19x1d

StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedsnixer34$7.707.7 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.431.43 CSGOBIG_COIN0.19x1d

StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$7.707.7 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.431.43 CSGOBIG_COIN0.19x1d

StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedMeruem$7.707.7 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.431.43 CSGOBIG_COIN0.19x2d

StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$7.707.7 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.431.43 CSGOBIG_COIN0.19x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$7.70	90.01%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 75.5%red 0.5%mil spec 1.0%covert 20.5%classified 2.5%best hit —