Hardened Edge
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$52.00
52 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $46.80 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
6.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 24
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 133 | $1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG_COIN | 19.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold | 1 in 133 | $800 800 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 80 | $350 350 CSGOBIG_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 67 | $280 280 CSGOBIG_COIN | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife | 1 in 57 | $180 180 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $120 120 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $29.00 29 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 79.0% | $14.14 14.14 CSGOBIG_COIN | 23.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=53, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $52.00 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.8%gold 0.8%covert knife 3.0%classified 1.5%extraordinary 5.0%restricted 89.0%