Duality
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$445.00
445 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $400.50 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.00%
2 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
50.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 50.0% | $801 801 CSGOBIG_COIN | 100.0% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 50.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=54, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$445445 CSGOBIG_COIN$801801 CSGOBIG_COIN1.80x
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $445 | 90.00% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 50.0%consumer 50.0%best hit $801 (1.80x)