Feign Luck
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$200.00
200 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $180.00 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.62%
5 openings, odds method
Variance
28.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 5 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 100 | $10K 10,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 55.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband | 1 in 50 | $2,800 2,800 CSGOBIG_COIN | 31.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 33 | $460 460 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $227 227 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 90.0% | $1.24 1.24 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.6% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.11× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=55, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $200 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 1.0%contraband 2.0%epic 3.0%classified 4.0%Mythical 90.0%best hit —