Bargainnn
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.46
0.46 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.85%
EV $0.41 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
152.17%
15 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 15 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P250 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $2.00 2 CSGOBIG_COIN | 9.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $1.66 1.66 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.0% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 20 | $1.13 1.13 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.7% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 20.0% | $0.54 0.54 CSGOBIG_COIN | 26.1% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.67× |
| Sawed-Off | Yorick (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | $0.37 0.37 CSGOBIG_COIN | 17.9% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| P250 | Verdigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $0.33 0.33 CSGOBIG_COIN | 20.0% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.27× |
| P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 25.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.6% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=57, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$0.460.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.661.66 CSGOBIG_COIN3.61x
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecgh0st$0.460.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.540.54 CSGOBIG_COIN1.17x
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$0.460.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.661.66 CSGOBIG_COIN3.61x
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$0.460.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.540.54 CSGOBIG_COIN1.17x
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$0.460.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.540.54 CSGOBIG_COIN1.17x
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerDiscípulo do Yekindar SKINS$0.460.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.46 | 89.85% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.0%restricted 3.0%Mythical 5.0%milspec 20.0%#4b69ff 20.0%mil spec 25.0%consumer 25.0%best hit —