Mind Drift
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.00
12 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $10.80 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
125.46%
10 openings, odds method
Variance
10.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 10 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=6, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Overgrowth (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN$28.0028 CSGOBIG_COIN2.33x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.00 | 90.00% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%covert knife 0.1%#ffd700 0.1%restricted 20.2%superior 2.6%classified 9.8%industrial 9.1%#4B69FF 11.1%Extraordinary 4.6%violet 3.9%#8847FF 15.6%Rare 8.5%#B0C3D9 7.8%milspec 6.5%best hit —